Four weeks in and the NL Central appears to be under wraps.
The Cardinals…keepers of the best record in the NL…and on pace to win more than 100 games…will win the NL Central crown.
At least, that’s according to AccuScore, which calculates the precise probability teams have of winning each game, winning their division, making the playoffs, advancing in the playoffs and winning the World Series.
St. Louis grades out at a 97.7% chance of winning the division, which indeed appears accurate given the Cards avoid major injuries to Pujols, Holliday or Carpenter.
Furthering St. Louis’ advantage is the weak division from within…Milwaukee, Pittsburgh & Houston.
So how did the Cubs respond to such news? Naturally, they drop back-to-back games at Pittsburgh…which lowers its chance of winning the Central to about 7%.
The projections are too strong to ignore. But I’m willing to give Chicago the final three weeks in May to make amends…otherwise, leave it to AccuScore to say “I told you so.”